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1.5 degrees Celsius target will be 'gone' in a few years: UN report

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Last Updated26/10/2024

The Emissions Gap Report, an annual publication of the UN Environment Programme, warned that the Paris Agreement objective of keeping global rise in temperatures to within 1.5 degree Celsius would be “gone within a few years.

Greenhouse gas emissions from China and India, two of the top three emitters, grew by 5.2% and 6.1%, respectively, in 2023, according to a new UN report released on Thursday. Global emissions in 2023 were 1.3% higher than in the previous year.

The Emissions Gap Report, an annual publication by the UN Environment Programme, warned that the Paris Agreement objective of limiting global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius will likely be unattainable in a few years. Even the 2 degrees Celsius threshold may be at risk unless countries significantly increase their climate actions to reduce global emissions within the next two years.
The report indicates that, under the most optimistic scenarios, current climate actions could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by only 10% by 2030 (compared to 2019 levels). To keep the 1.5-degree target viable, a 42% reduction is necessary, escalating to 57% by 2035.

The report stresses that updated climate action plans, which countries must submit by next year, need to be substantially more robust than current commitments. However, global emissions continue to rise. A 7.5% annual reduction until 2035 is critical to maintain the 1.5-degree target.

The report calls for a significant boost in investments aimed at emissions reductions. It suggests that the emissions gap for 2030 and 2035 could be bridged at a cost of $200 per ton of CO2 equivalent. At this cost, approximately 31 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent could potentially be reduced from annual emissions by 2030, surpassing the nearly 28 billion CO2 equivalent required to meet the 1.5-degree goal

In three weeks, countries will gather for the annual climate conference in Baku, where delegates will discuss a substantial increase in financial resources for climate action.
“Every fraction of fossil fuel emissions is pushing us closer to catastrophe. The findings of the Emissions Gap Report are alarming yet again, while political inaction threatens to lock in irreversible damage,” said Harjeet Singh, Climate Activist and Global Engagement Director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.