| Economic Growth Forecast (FY25) | India's GDP is projected to grow at 6.5% in FY25, with Q2 FY25 growth at 5.4%, the lowest in seven quarters. |
| Factors for Slowdown (H1 FY25) | Weak manufacturing and consumption, RBI's restrictive monetary policy, and global uncertainties. |
| RBI's Monetary Policy | Key interest rates unchanged for 11 consecutive meetings; CRR reduced from 4.5% to 4% to boost credit growth. |
| Rural Demand | Resilient rural demand supported by growth in two- and three-wheeler sales, robust tractor sales, and favorable agricultural conditions (higher MSP, high reservoir levels, sufficient fertilizer). |
| Urban Demand | Urban demand recovery reflected in 13.4% YoY growth in passenger vehicle sales and increased air passenger traffic. |
| Agricultural Growth | Supported by higher MSP, favorable monsoon, and adequate water reservoir levels. |
| Industrial Recovery | Expected to pick up due to government capital expenditure and demand in cement, iron, steel, mining, and electricity sectors. |
| Inflation | CPI inflation softened to 4.8% for FY25, driven by lower food and core inflation. Quarterly forecasts: 5.7% (Q3), 4.5% (Q4). |
| Global Risks | Risks include global trade tensions, a stronger US dollar, and potential volatility in global oil and edible oil prices. |
| Finance Ministry's Outlook | Despite a weaker first half, the economy is expected to rebound in H2 FY25, supported by domestic factors. Global uncertainties remain a challenge. |
