Jaishankar in Pakistan: Low expectations, some possibilities

Highlights:

• In May 2023, India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar had strongly criticized his then Pakistani counterpart, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, calling him a "promoter" of terrorism during a press conference at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meeting. Bilawal, in turn, raised the issue of Article 370 and Jammu and Kashmir, playing the victim card. The sharp exchange reflected the deep-rooted tension between the two countries.

SCO and the Verbal Exchange on Terrorism:

• During the May 2023 SCO meeting, Jaishankar referenced cross-border terrorism and the need to block terror financing. Bilawal responded by accusing India of “weaponising terrorism for diplomatic point-scoring.”

A New Visit: Jaishankar in Islamabad for SCO:

• Fast forward a year and five months, Jaishankar is set to travel to Islamabad for the SCO Council of Heads of Government meeting on October 15-16, 2024. The political landscape has changed significantly: Bilawal Bhutto is no longer Pakistan's foreign minister, although his party remains influential in the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.
• Jaishankar has made it clear that his visit to Pakistan is strictly for the SCO multilateral event, not a bilateral engagement with Pakistan. His statement underlined this: “I am going there to be a good member of the SCO. Since I am a courteous and civil person, I will behave myself accordingly.”

Evolving Dynamics: Domestic and Bilateral Factors

India’s Stance:

• For India, the central challenge is the ongoing border standoff with China since May 2020, which remains a higher priority than its relationship with Pakistan. Additionally, the security situation in Jammu and Kashmir continues to be delicate, with recent terror attacks against Indian security forces.
• In terms of political alignment, the BJP's reduced mandate in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has increased the importance of its coalition partners, but India's stance on Pakistan, especially regarding terrorism and Kashmir, remains firmly controlled by the BJP.

Pakistan’s Internal Struggles:

• Pakistan is facing significant internal turmoil. The country’s economic crisis, political instability, and the rise of protests by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have severely impacted governance. Despite these challenges, Pakistan's military, often described as its "most reliable institution," faces significant limitations in addressing the country’s political and economic fractures.

Historical Perspective: A Tumultuous Relationship:

• India and Pakistan’s relationship has deteriorated significantly since Prime Minister Modi's initial outreach in 2014, when he invited then-Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif for his swearing-in. The subsequent diplomatic engagement saw Sushma Swaraj visit Pakistan in 2015 to restart talks, followed by Modi's surprise visit to Lahore.
• However, a series of events—including the Pathankot attack (2016), Uri attack (2016), Pulwama attack (2019), and India's Balakot air strikes—have kept relations on a downward spiral. The constitutional changes in Jammu and Kashmir in 2019 further soured ties, leading to the cessation of bilateral trade and transportation links.

Present Challenges and Future Prospects:

• While Jaishankar’s visit signals an opportunity for multilateral diplomacy, the underlying tensions between India and Pakistan—especially on issues of terrorism and Kashmir—persist. For India, the primary challenge remains countering terrorism and securing its borders, particularly with China’s growing presence.
• Jaishankar’s visit to Islamabad is unlikely to result in any immediate bilateral engagement, but it underscores the continued relevance of regional platforms like the SCO in facilitating dialogue, even among adversarial neighbors.

Prelims Takeaways:

• India-Pakistan Relations