| Key Aspect | Details |
|---|---|
| WTO 2025 Trade Growth Forecast | 2.4% (up from 0.9% in August) |
| WTO 2026 Trade Growth Forecast | 0.5% (down from 1.8%) |
| Drivers of 2025 Trade Surge | - US import front-loading (semiconductors, machinery, EVs) |
| - AI and tech goods trade (chips, computing hardware, data infrastructure) | |
| - Supportive macro conditions (disinflation, fiscal stimulus, emerging economies like India, Brazil, Vietnam) | |
| Factors for 2026 Slowdown | - Delayed impact of US tariffs (on China, Europe, developing countries) |
| - Global economic cooling | |
| - Slower growth in advanced economies | |
| - Weak European demand | |
| - Rising geopolitical tensions | |
| WTO Recommendations | - Maintain rules-based global trade system |
| - Avoid unilateral trade restrictions | |
| India's Position | - Expected to benefit in 2025 due to strong domestic growth, tech manufacturing, and supply chain diversification |
| - Potential impact in 2026 on export markets (textiles, electronics, auto components) |
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